For the last few days, I've been parsing and categorizing my response to seeing the rapid collapse of Afghanistan after our withdrawal. And to me, it's been a bit more rapid than I expected, but absolutely what I've assumed would happen for the last 20 years. I remember when we invaded, saying "I want to know what our exit strategy is, or else this is just another Vietnam." Turns out that's exactly what has happened. Afghanistan has a very long history of being nearly unconquerable. Genghis Khan was successful, but only because his army permanently moved in and never left. In fact the Hazara people literally look different than other tribes, due to their Mongolian heritage. But the Romans, the Russians, Alexander the Great, and the United States, have all been defeated in trying to conquer Afghanistan. If only President Bush would have rewatched the Princess Bride in 2001, and remembered the all important maxim: "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."
I hate that we weren't successful, and the good lives that were lost. But I don't see it as a surprise at all. America is not good at ending wars. I think the ending of World War II gave us hubris for the other conflicts that we entered in the 20th (and beginning of the 21st) century. You cannot force a people to choose what they don't want. And with Afghanistan, though there are many people there who are good people, there still weren't enough to fight against the inertia of thousands of years of tribalism and war lords. Which we should have been well aware of, and many of us were....but the top brass and politicians, chose to deny this.
I've seen people asking why we didn't maintain a force there, like we did with Japan and Germany. The reasons for keeping those bases were strategic, to keep footholds in Europe (against Russia) and in Asia. Afghanistan really doesn't fulfill that need. And with the cost of a place that has NEVER been stable, the maintenance is too high. Japan and Germany had successful economies and stability; Afghanistan doesn't and won't. We would pour far more into the bribes needed to keep the wolves off in that region, in perpetuity, than we would gain strategically. Attacks on the Green Zone never stopped. The prices never stopped being paid by American personnel. The same can't be said of Germany and Japan. I fully believe that if we were to wait ten more years, we would just spend trillions more that could be spent here, with the same result.
At some point, you have to disavow the sunk cost fallacy, and withdraw. Should that have been done at a more measured pace? Sure, of course. At the least we should have had a solid plan on how to get our allies out, who would surely be sacrificed.
But I ultimately believe we were well past the point where we should go. And I've spent my whole career involved in that war, it breaks my heart that we weren't able to save the good people from the bad; I hate how many of our friends and coworkers were lost in the prime of life, for the glory of a politician's lost cause. I hate seeing the equipment that we left to try to do the right thing, get taken by the Taliban (just like what happened when the Russians left). I hate seeing a new vacuum for bad actors come into existence. But I hate even more, that our past leaders thought that the risks of fighting a new war for bad reasons, were worth it. Because, as a 19 year old, I knew how it would end. You can't tell me they didn't see it too. But too many people wanted to get rich at the top, and didn't pay a price. And from the good old adage, Never let a crisis go to waste, they didn't. So I hope that the leaders from 2001 and on get accurately called out for wasting blood, time, and money, for the most predictable end all along. And the death of hope for a people, that was never going to be. As a nation, I hope that we can learn some lessons about fights that are worth the cost, and that you should never enter a room without knowing how to get back out of it again.